Its time to act. We can't just sit back and let the NRA tell us that "today is not a day for politics." I challenge them to tell me when I am allowed to have an opinion on gun control.
http://www.bradycampaign.org/
Showing posts with label President Obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label President Obama. Show all posts
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Tragedy in Newtown
Its time to act. We can't just sit back and let the NRA tell us that "today is not a day for politics." I challenge them to tell me when I am allowed to have an opinion on gun control.
http://www.bradycampaign.org/
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Obama's grand strategy
According to conventional political logic the President should be worried about his chances of re-election, very worried.
With an official unemployment rate of 9%, a massive deficit and a campaign finance system that is now officially completely broken, Axelrod and the president's other strategists must be nervous.
But there might might yet be a path to victory for the President. Besides having very good grassroots fundraising totals (I shelled out for my apron and beer koozie) and the promise to raise more than $1 billion for his campaign, there might be a few other reasons to be optimistic about the President's chances of securing a second term in the White House.
The path to victory I see relies on one fundamental assumption: voters are sick of the status quo and will vote for whichever candidate will bring change. In short, as with many elections in the past, whoever can run as an "outsider" and can credibly promise to "clean up Washington" and get things done will win.
Factor 1: The Super Committee
The Super Committee that was formed from the ashes of the debt ceiling debacle last summer is finally supposed to be releasing its budget balancing plan. Since the Republicans on this committee have sworn a blood oath to never raise taxes, this committee really doesn't have the capacity to balance the budget. The Republicans know that if they even allow old tax cuts to expire they will be crucified by a base who has been thoroughly convinced that raising taxes for any reason is treasonous.
So what is the likely outcome of the Super Committee's non-attempt to balance the budget? Huge cuts to both entitlements and defense. So who comes out on top when we cut both the military and social programs, the Republicans or the President? Well, since the Republicans have basically already come out in-favor of eliminating the programs that many of our seniors rely on with the Paul Ryan plan, I think President Obama will win this one. What about the defense cuts you ask? I think the liberal base would be excited about the prospect of cutting another $1 trillion over 10 years from the already bloated miliatry budget. And it is going to be hard to call the guy who killed Bin Laden "soft on defense."
So no matter what happens (unless there actually is some sort of compromise) the President will win this round and be able to promise to restore the entitlement program cuts while effectively endorsing the Pentagon cuts by ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Factor 2: The Supreme Court
The Supreme Court has immense power. From its ability to decide who the winner of elections will be (Bush vs. Gore) to shaping the history of the 20th century's greatest President (when FDR tried to pack the court and then ram through all of his new deal plans) the final fate of any President can be decided by the high court.
This year is no different. By agreeing to hear the challenges to the President's healthcare law, the 5-4 conservative majority has basically signaled their intention to invalidate at least some of the law, likely the insurance mandate.
At first glance this eventuality may seem like a serious set back for the President. But remember my assumption, whoever is the "outsider" will likely win this election. Paradoxically, if the Supreme Court strikes down the healthcare law the President might actually be in a better position. If Obama can convince the American people that he is the man of action and Congress and the Supreme Court are standing in his way, he could even return to the same campaign slogan for 2012 with a slight variation. "We tried, but in the second term, YES WE CAN!" And in the most optimistic scenario, repeal of the Affordable Care Act might actually energize the liberal base and lay the foundation for health CARE reform, instead of the health INSURANCE reform we got in 2009.
Winner? Despite the mainstream media who will undoubtedly spin the decision of an unaccountable and appointed group of wealthy elderly lawyers as a damaging blow to the President, I think giving Obama another enemy of progress for him to campaign against will help him more than it will hurt him.
Factor 3: The crazy Republican field and the potential for a third party candidate
By now we have experienced the Donald Trump fad, the Michelle Bachman fad, the Rick Perry fad, and the Herman Cain fad without the Republican primary voters being able to make up their minds. They just really don't like Mitt Romney even though they grudgingly know he is the best general election candidate, mainly because he doesn't openly advocate ending Social Security.
But as I have pointed out before, Romney is a Mormon and there is a large segment of the American public, in particular the Evangelical Christian right who will not vote for him because of his faith. This primary fight will likely last into the late spring forcing the candidates and their Super PACs to waste their valuable resources battling each other for the nomination. For the first time in living memory this nomination may come down to a convention floor fight which would obviously be the best possible scenario for the President.
There have also been rumblings that Ron Paul, the only real conservative libertarian in the race, might run as a third party candidate if he doesn't win the Republican nomination. Much like Ross Perot gave the 1992 election to Bill Clinton by splitting the conservative vote, a Ron Paul 3rd party bid would almost certainly guarantee a second term for the President.
Romney will likely be the nominee. If he isn't, I think the Republicans will be in for a "Goldwatering" and President Obama will cruise to victory as the only remotely qualified candidate.
Factor 4: Foreign Policy (the total wild card)
Unbeknownst to most Americans, much of the world is pretty much falling apart. The European debt crisis is spiraling out of control and an Israeli attack on Iran seems increasingly likely. The geopolitical implications of a new war in the Middle East could change the race for President in ways I can't really predict.
Conventional wisdom would dictate that a sitting commander-in-chief would likely benefit from a war that doesn't see a large number of American causalities before election day. However, a wider war in the Middle East that might include both Turkey and Syria, not to mention the fact that the Iranians would likely move to close the straights of Hormuz would send world energy prices through the roof. Again, it is unclear but voters would almost certainly blame President Obama if gas prices doubled or tripled unless he somehow opened the eyes of Americans to our dependence on foreign oil and convinced us of the need to embark on a huge domestic clean energy infrastructure building project in the wake of a military disaster in the middle east.
In summary, the next year will provide the President with a slew of opportunities to position himself as the outsider and run against the dysfunction that is Washington D.C. and hopefully avoid a full scale war in the Middle East.
With an official unemployment rate of 9%, a massive deficit and a campaign finance system that is now officially completely broken, Axelrod and the president's other strategists must be nervous.
The path to victory I see relies on one fundamental assumption: voters are sick of the status quo and will vote for whichever candidate will bring change. In short, as with many elections in the past, whoever can run as an "outsider" and can credibly promise to "clean up Washington" and get things done will win.
Factor 1: The Super Committee
The Super Committee that was formed from the ashes of the debt ceiling debacle last summer is finally supposed to be releasing its budget balancing plan. Since the Republicans on this committee have sworn a blood oath to never raise taxes, this committee really doesn't have the capacity to balance the budget. The Republicans know that if they even allow old tax cuts to expire they will be crucified by a base who has been thoroughly convinced that raising taxes for any reason is treasonous.
So what is the likely outcome of the Super Committee's non-attempt to balance the budget? Huge cuts to both entitlements and defense. So who comes out on top when we cut both the military and social programs, the Republicans or the President? Well, since the Republicans have basically already come out in-favor of eliminating the programs that many of our seniors rely on with the Paul Ryan plan, I think President Obama will win this one. What about the defense cuts you ask? I think the liberal base would be excited about the prospect of cutting another $1 trillion over 10 years from the already bloated miliatry budget. And it is going to be hard to call the guy who killed Bin Laden "soft on defense."
So no matter what happens (unless there actually is some sort of compromise) the President will win this round and be able to promise to restore the entitlement program cuts while effectively endorsing the Pentagon cuts by ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Factor 2: The Supreme Court
The Supreme Court has immense power. From its ability to decide who the winner of elections will be (Bush vs. Gore) to shaping the history of the 20th century's greatest President (when FDR tried to pack the court and then ram through all of his new deal plans) the final fate of any President can be decided by the high court.
This year is no different. By agreeing to hear the challenges to the President's healthcare law, the 5-4 conservative majority has basically signaled their intention to invalidate at least some of the law, likely the insurance mandate.
At first glance this eventuality may seem like a serious set back for the President. But remember my assumption, whoever is the "outsider" will likely win this election. Paradoxically, if the Supreme Court strikes down the healthcare law the President might actually be in a better position. If Obama can convince the American people that he is the man of action and Congress and the Supreme Court are standing in his way, he could even return to the same campaign slogan for 2012 with a slight variation. "We tried, but in the second term, YES WE CAN!" And in the most optimistic scenario, repeal of the Affordable Care Act might actually energize the liberal base and lay the foundation for health CARE reform, instead of the health INSURANCE reform we got in 2009.
Winner? Despite the mainstream media who will undoubtedly spin the decision of an unaccountable and appointed group of wealthy elderly lawyers as a damaging blow to the President, I think giving Obama another enemy of progress for him to campaign against will help him more than it will hurt him.
Factor 3: The crazy Republican field and the potential for a third party candidate
By now we have experienced the Donald Trump fad, the Michelle Bachman fad, the Rick Perry fad, and the Herman Cain fad without the Republican primary voters being able to make up their minds. They just really don't like Mitt Romney even though they grudgingly know he is the best general election candidate, mainly because he doesn't openly advocate ending Social Security.
But as I have pointed out before, Romney is a Mormon and there is a large segment of the American public, in particular the Evangelical Christian right who will not vote for him because of his faith. This primary fight will likely last into the late spring forcing the candidates and their Super PACs to waste their valuable resources battling each other for the nomination. For the first time in living memory this nomination may come down to a convention floor fight which would obviously be the best possible scenario for the President.
Romney will likely be the nominee. If he isn't, I think the Republicans will be in for a "Goldwatering" and President Obama will cruise to victory as the only remotely qualified candidate.
Factor 4: Foreign Policy (the total wild card)
Conventional wisdom would dictate that a sitting commander-in-chief would likely benefit from a war that doesn't see a large number of American causalities before election day. However, a wider war in the Middle East that might include both Turkey and Syria, not to mention the fact that the Iranians would likely move to close the straights of Hormuz would send world energy prices through the roof. Again, it is unclear but voters would almost certainly blame President Obama if gas prices doubled or tripled unless he somehow opened the eyes of Americans to our dependence on foreign oil and convinced us of the need to embark on a huge domestic clean energy infrastructure building project in the wake of a military disaster in the middle east.
In summary, the next year will provide the President with a slew of opportunities to position himself as the outsider and run against the dysfunction that is Washington D.C. and hopefully avoid a full scale war in the Middle East.
Friday, October 14, 2011
What do a Chinese Solar Company, lord of the rings pez dispensers, president obama and postcards from 1930s germany have in common?
What do a Chinese Solar Company, Lord of the Rings pez dispensers, President Obama and postcards from 1930s Germany have in common?
Not much, except that I was outraged / confused / intrigued by all of them in the course of a week. Most blogs are reserved for random observations and the Captain's Blog is no exception.
I could have just uploaded each of these photos to Twitter or Facebook but I feel like I had more to say about them than 140 characters would allow, so here we go!
Random observation #1:
How old is this pez? I understand that the Lord of the Rings is still very popular but come on, are they really still manufacturing these or has this been sitting on the back shelf at Fred Meyer for years?
All I know is I regret not buying them already, but my internal organs are probably thanking me.
Random observation #2:
Anyone who has ever used the men’s room at the Pike Brewery in Seattle (specifically the first urinal) has probably noticed they have a lot of crazy crap on the walls. But nothing compares to the German postcards from the 1930s.
Hmm, what could have been happening in Germany in the 1930s that maybe the owners of the Pike Brewery weren’t aware of when they chose to frame these postcards that are clearly encouraging conformity amongst the beer drinking German people? I mean doesn't that guy leading the Prost look a bit familiar?
Random observation #3:
Did this Coffee shop’s sign get vandalized or in response to the President’s sliding approval ratings did they decide to disassociate their blend from the President?
Either way it seems to bode ill for the president if even in liberal Seattle, people are unwilling to openly affirm their support and go out of their way to remove his name from other people's signs.
Random Observation #4:
There I was enjoying the Seattle Sounders 3rd consecutive US Open Cup victory, when what do I see scrolling across the LED boards? An advertisement for a CHINESE solar manufacturer.
In the wake of the quasi-scandal that was the Solyndra bankruptcy, this ad made me all the more angry and sad.
The Chinese have invested billions into subsides for their solar manufactures to make them the market leader. And now they are spending some of those Chinese government Yuan advertising to us about how we should buy panels from them instead of manufacturing them here at home?
We might as well give up in the race to lead the 21st century if we are going to keep subsidizing the fuels of the past while the Chinese corner the solar market.
Our government understands the power of subsidies. But because of political corruption and our system of legalized bribery we are giving the same tax breaks to oil companies that they enjoyed in the early part of the 20th century when all the science is telling us that fossil fuels are killing our planet.
And they have the audacity to proclaim "GO U.S." while they beat us at our own game.
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